Age of Autarky
We’re in a new phase of the world: the age of autarky.
It’s been coming.
Populism was already on the rise across the West through the 2010s. The economic benefits of decades of globalisation were akin to William Gibson’s future: here, but not evenly distributed. Not even close.
As consumers, we scoffed down cheaper goods and ignored the externalities. Lost jobs. Lost skills. Lost traditions. Lost hope. Stable democracy relies on a thriving middle class: people who, on balance, are broadly happy with the way things are heading. Populism’s rise is no surprise: “Take Back Control” has a ring to it if you feel you’ve lost it, even if the solutions being offered are flawed (Brexit) or worse, built on a foundation of lies, fear and misdirection.
We were heading this way already and the Financial Crisis in 2007/08 put us on the home straight. Then, a few big new things happened. Trump. Russia. AI. China. Rare earths. Energy. A whirlpool of existential threats with limited good options and not enough time.
For the last decade (at least) in Britain, the sovereignty and independence narrative was mostly a dog-whistle to nostalgic imperialists: grounded in completely the wrong ideas but, ironically, maybe actually - albeit calamitously - en route to the right answer for reasons they never saw coming.
The world order as it was is breaking down, and the cat in the bag. Even if Trump loses the next election, a Rubicon has been crossed. It’s laid bare how exposed we are relying on global integration and common codes with powerful international allies.
In short, we need to build shit here - whether “here” means Britain or Europe more broadly. It’s no longer a theory of economic - it’s a strategical and geopolitical necessity.