Numbers and Narratives
As we head into 2026, only one thing is clear: nobody knows what's going to happen.
If you're a start-up founder, planning amidst that uncertainty is extremely difficult - particularly if your runway doesn't take you comfortably through the year and into 2027.
Each case will be different, so it's impossible to give 'generic' advice on how to think about fundraising in 2026. But the closest I can get is to recommend that you fully internalise that capital flows towards two things: numbers and narratives.
Numbers are clear. If you are smashing it out of the park with the metrics - whether that's user growth, revenue growth or some other key indicator of product-market fit - then you're in with a shot. The numbers are a key plank of the narrative, here. VCs don't have to over-intellectualise whether something will work - they simply have to dig into the numbers to validate that it is indeed working, and that there's a path to creating sustainable value off the back of it. I'd argue that even the snootiest 'thesis-driven' VC will want to take a meeting if your charts are ripping up-and-to-the-right.
For most start-ups, the numbers aren't yet blow-your-socks-off incredible, particularly at the early stages. Here, the narrative side of the equation is crucial - you must tell investors a clear and compelling story that they buy into and want to believe. In 2025, the narrative that investors have wanted to hear is one that features AI as a central character, and I think that's likely to continue into 2026. Whether you like it or not, you probably have to find a role for that character too.
The value of stories is wildly different depending on how compelling that story is, and how many people want to hear it. Contrast the hype around a new Blockbuster movie and the associated clamour for people to see it as soon as possible (and often, before anyone else does), vs. a direct-to-streaming long-tail piece of generic slop. It's exactly the same in fundraising - if you have a killer narrative with a hot cast (the founders), you're more likely to command premium ticket pricing (demand for your funding round and valuation) than the run-of-the-mill Christmas rom-com. The rom-com might still get picked up, but it's at the back of the proverbial video store gathering dust and hoping someone stumbles across it.
Not all narratives are good, and sometimes narrative alone is not enough - particularly if it's the same narrative that's been trailed for a few years, either by you or others. Here, as ever, it pays to remember to Please Be Different. But don't underestimate the importance of narratives in general: they are crucial now more than ever.