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TBPN x OAI

Today, Open AI announced that is has acquired TBPN, reportedly for "low hundreds of millions".

The obvious point is that it's an ironic announcement so soon after the declaration of discipline: no more side quests.

The broader point is that it shows a start-up (and yes, despite the valuation, they are still a start-up in lifetime terms) struggling to figure out its true levers of long-run defensibility.

Brand awareness is not an issue for Open AI: they are arguably the best known new company of the last 50 years. Instead, what they seem to be struggling with is narrative control.

Part of that is convincing the general public that AI is not going to kill us all and take all of our jobs. But TBPN doesn't help with that: 99% of the population haven't heard of them, and the audience is unlikely to broaden under new ownership.

The other part - the bit that the TBPN looks more targeted towards - is vibe maintenance (h/t to Harry Stebbings for coining the term). Namely, Open AI is losing the 'coolness' race to Anthropic, and that's a BIG deal. Not because subscribers will shift (although that does seem to be happening) but because momentum is the lifeblood that keeps the resource magnetism show on the road.

Losing the crown as the perceived King of AI will bite hard on the two most important resources in Startupland: capital and talent. The TBPN acquisition is an attempt to keep those well from running dry.